Hey Everyone,
Just to let you know, we've finished grading your papers and grades for
the course. I'm currently placing the graded papers in your folders (if
you are a gov student), I'll have them with me in the third floor
computer lab if you aren't (for the evening, then I'll place them in
Holger's folder).
I'll send you an email with your grade over the course of the evening.
Thanks for being a great class and please contact Holger, Gary, or myself
with any questions--
Cheers,
Justin
Hi everyone, Here's a great opportunity if anyone has some time available.
Please contact Sid directly if you're interested.
Gary
On Thu, 10 May 2007, Sid Verba wrote:
> Hi Gary: Here is a message that could go out to potential RA's.
>
> I am looking for a research assistant to work on a large-scale
> project on political inequality I am conducting in collaboration with Henry
> Brady (of Berkeley) and Kay Schlozman (of Boston College). It is a follow up
> to our book, VOICE AND EQUALITY, published about a decade ago. It continues
> our analysis of the nature, extent, sources, and consequences of political
> inequality in current US politics, and extends our concerns to include more
> historical and comparative material, as well as focusing on changes over
> time. In addition, we have developed a large data base of organized
> interests in D.C., and are looking at inequality in terms of the needs and
> preferences that are represented by the interest group system.
>
> We would be interested in someone with good quantitative skills as
> applied to survey type data. These would include statistical abilities, but
> also an ability to search out data sets on that are on our subject, and to
> mine multiple sources of data.
>
> There would be work starting this summer, especially in July, but
> possibly August as well. And continuing work next academic year. (The work
> starting in the fall is not contingent on having worked this summer, but a
> combination would be nice.) The amount of time per week and schedules can be
> somewhat flexible.
>
> If you are interested, please send me a note with a cv (or
> whatever).
>
>
> Sidney Verba
>
> Pforzheimer University Professor
>
>
>
>
Hey Everyone,
Please see the announcement below for a great RA opportunity
Cheers,
Justin
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 08 May 2007 13:54:05 -0400
From: Claudine Gay <cgay at gov.harvard.edu>
To: Justin Ryan Grimmer <jgrimmer at fas.harvard.edu>
Subject: RA Posting for GOV2001 list
Hi Justin:
Here is the job posting I mentioned. Please send this out to the Gov 2001 list.
Thanks.
Claudine
/*****/
Research assistant needed for study examining effects of housing mobility on
political engagement. Work will begin data-light (i.e. literature reviews) but
will become data-intensive, so interest and training in quantitative methods is
a must. Quantitative work will involve anlaysis of administrative data and
survey data generated from field experiment. Preference is for PhD student with
research interests in political behavior. Student should be available to begin
work by late May.
If you are interested in this opportunity, please email Claudine Gay at
cgay at gov.harvard.edu. Email should include description of methods background
and research interests.
/*****/
--
Claudine Gay
Professor, Department of Government
Faculty Associate, Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Harvard University
1737 Cambridge St.
Cambridge, MA. 02138
cgay at gov.harvard.edu
(617) 496-5470
Hi all,
I forgot to ask you to please also email me and Justin a pdf of your
final paper, especially if you're turning it in late (i.e., after 5 pm
today.) The extent to which we hold late papers to higher standards
depends on when we receive your electronic copy, not when you put the
hardcopies into my mailbox!
The final deadline including the extension is Friday 9 am!
cheers,
Holger
--
Holger Lutz Kern
Ph.D. cand.
Department of Government
Cornell University
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Harvard University
1737 Cambridge Street N350
Cambridge, MA 02138
www.people.cornell.edu/pages/hlk23
hi all,
when you turn in your final paper, please put two hardcopies in my
mailbox in the department (3rd floor; next to where we had lecture).
cheers,
Holger
--
Holger Lutz Kern
Ph.D. cand.
Department of Government
Cornell University
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Harvard University
1737 Cambridge Street N350
Cambridge, MA 02138
www.people.cornell.edu/pages/hlk23
Testing the Waves: Looking for International Effects on Democratization
Gleditsch and Ward (2006) argue that democratization is influenced by
international factors such as the degree to which neighbors and the
international environment are democratized. Using multiple imputation
methods to correct for missing data problems, we confirm the authors'
results that high proportions of neighboring democracies increase both
democratic transitions and democratic consolidation, although the effect on
democratic transitions is much smaller after 1950. However, while the
authors find no effect of higher global proportions of democracies on
democracy consolidation, we find that when considering a more complete set
of countries, higher proportions of global democracy actually predict less
democratic consolidation. We hypothesize that this more complete set of
countries is better reflecting the wave pattern of democratization. When
waves of democratization occur, the proportion of democracies increases,
many of which are unsustainable. The instability caused by rapid and
widespread democratization may increase the probability of reverting back to
autocracy for many countries.
Title: Moving the Unmovable? Campaign Advertising Exposure Doesn't Increase
Voter Turnout
Abstract: Studies of campaign effects on voter turnout usually focus on factors
that affect all eligible voters, but do not disaggregate voters based on their
pre-campaign voting intentions. Based on data from the 2000 US presidential
election, we find that eligible voters with a pre-campaign intention not to
vote (?non-voters?) are extremely difficult to mobilize. Non-voters,
regardless of reliable predictors of turnout such as union membership and age,
generally do not change their minds during a political campaign. This study
builds on the findings of Ashworth and Clinton (2007) by using more robust
methods and multiple model specifications. Not only do we confirm their
conclusion that campaign advertising has no effect on voter turnout, we also
find that particularly for non-voters, other factors such as level of political
interest and strength of party identification, also have no effect. This
finding points to a deeper source of political disengagement that cannot be
addressed by campaign tactics alone.
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: question about abstract
Date: Sat, 5 May 2007 05:39:39 -0400
From: astokes at camail.harvard.edu
To: Holger Lutz Kern <hlk23 at cornell.edu>
References: <1178323375.463bc9af365ca at www.camail.harvard.edu>
<463BE28A.1040201 at cornell.edu>
Authors: Tom Laakso and Andy Stokes
Title: Back to the Future: Revisiting the Global Mortality Projections of
Mathers and Loncar Through Bayesian Priors
Abstract: Mathers and Loncar (2006) use the last decade of global vital
registration data to update worldwide projections of deathsthrough 2030.
Their
basic model strives to predict mortality based on just a few demographic
quantities, but is reliant uponextensive by-hand adjustment of regression
outcomes. We attempt to replace these after-the-fact corrections with a
Bayesian
approach to prior beliefs, as implemented in Girosi and King's (2001)
YourCast
package. By specifying a number of priors, we obtain a measure of
specification
uncertainty in the projections. We find that, on average, the 2030
age-specific
mortality rate can only be specified within plus/minus 50% of its measured
value. This far outweighs the plus/minus 10% allowed for in the original
study,
given different global growth scenarios. We then mapped this variance
country-by-country for each unique combination of age and
cause-of-death. While
the specification uncertainty does show strong geographic patterns,
these are
complicated functions of both age and cause-of-death. Therefore, the model
appears to be robust to prior-specification only in very specific subsets of
the global population.
Quoting Holger Lutz Kern <hlk23 at cornell.edu>:
> Andy,
>
> just send it to me; I'll forward it to the list...
>
> Holger
>
>
Don't Rule Out "Structure" Just Yet
Revisiting Howard & Roessler's "Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes"
Why do some semi-free elections in competitive authoritarian regimes produce liberalizing outcomes while others do not? Howard & Roessler offer a compelling story that emphasizes the ability of the opposition to form a coalition. However, a reevaluation of their empirical evidence reveals a more complex relationship between structural preconditions and the probability of further liberalization. The opposition's behavior is more constrained by economic growth and prior experiences with democratization than implied by Howard and Roessler's theory. We respecify Howard and Roessler's model to disaggregate their predictor variables' effects. We find that opposition coalitions are less likely to form: during periods of economic growth, in states with no prior history of liberal change, and in states with lower levels of opposition mobilization. Additionally, we examine the counterfactual scenarios Howard & Roessler pose in constructing their argument. We find their counterfactuals are not reasonable given their data and suggest modifications that better demonstrate the impact of the above mentioned variables.
