Gov2001 April 2007

gov2001@lists.gking.harvard.edu

24 participants
28 discussions

[gov2001-l] Gov 2001 readings for next week

by hlk23＠cornell.edu

hello all, here are the readings for next week. Paul W. Holland. 1986. Statistics and Causal Inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81: 945-960. Paul R. Rosenbaum and Donald B. Rubin. 1985. Constructing a Control Group Using Multivariate Matched Sampling Methods That Incorporate the Propensity Score. The American Statistician 39: 33-38. cheers, Holger -- Holger Lutz Kern Graduate Student Department of Government Cornell University Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University 1737 Cambridge Street N350 Cambridge, MA 02138 www.people.cornell.edu/pages/hlk23

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Our abstract

by htiet＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi all, Below is our working abstract and title. Best, Hai and Hea Min Title: Explaining the Growth of Bilateral Investment Treaties: Competition and the Negative Effects of Learning, Past Agreements, and Trade Relations Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate Elkins, Guzman, and Simmons (2006)'s [henceforth, EGS 2006] claim that the spread of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) derives from the international economic competition between potential host countries. In short, BITs are intergovernmental treaties that guarantee particular rights for foreign investors in a host country; the foreign investors, in turn, invest within the host country to-in principle-fulfill their contracts' requirements. EGS 2006 additionally argue that learning based on past or current successful investment experiences plays a positive role with BIT signing. This paper extends EGS 2006's work by using event-history analysis and accounts for diminishing marginal benefits and country-level variations. The results show that competition among host countries does increase the likelihood of signing a BIT. However, contrary to EGS 2006's findings, this paper demonstrates how learning, the presence of previous BIT agreements, and dyadic trade relations between the investor and host country negatively impact the signing of a BIT. We therefore conclusively argue that the evidence suggests learning cannot be used to explain the global increase of BITs.

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] abstracts

by king＠harvard.edu

as you can see, i'm being picky. this is because, my experience is that with my research and that in this class, this is the stage when you can have the biggest effect. most of the hard work goes into getting the data up, figuring out the place in the literature, understanding, coding and running the stat'l model and interpreting the results. but it is after all that where you can have a big effect if you put the work in to find the angle, the news, the contribution. and THIS is the time when you have the infrastructure all in place and so it is far EASIER now than at any time in doing research to look at one more result, add a new control variable, look at different subsamples of the time series or for subsamples of respondents, or calculate a different quantity of interest, etc... the world will care about the result of that, if you can find a new angle (and support it); after all, we all know that you worked very hard and did all the stuff you were supposed to, but that's not the issue and is not what anyone outside of this class will care about. Its like the foundation of a building which of course is also absolutely essential, but once it is done, you burry it and only look at the beautiful structure built on top of it. don't forget the stuff above street level... one question to ask yourself is 'what (or what new) am I claiming?' or as I've said before 'whose mind will you change about what'. that's what the abstract should address. as examples, see the abstracts and claims in the papers on my preprints page: http://gking.harvard.edu/preprints.shtml. I suggest you just read through them. I mostly write methods papers, and I'm asking most of you to write about the substance, but other than that you will see some (attempts to make) unambiguous claims. the success of the abstract depends on the extent to which you can highlight the new claim, and the success of the paper depends on the extent to which you can support it. Gary

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Title And Abstract: Tolbert and McNeal

by tfbelanger＠gmail.com

Hello everyone, I'm partnered with Brian Feinstein and Shauna Shames. We propose the following title and abstract. Sincerely, Tyson --- Title Get It Together: Revisiting Tolbert and McNeal's "Unraveling The Effects of the Internet on Political Participation?" Abstract The article entitled, "Unraveling the Effects of the Internet on Political Participation?" appeared in Political Research Quarterly in June 2003 and has been subsequently cited 26 times. The analysis used NES survey data to argue that access to the internet and internet news increases the probability of voting. If true, this finding has significant consequences for predicting the future of American politics. Here, we revisit the original article in order to confirm its results. Unfortunately, we findthat it can no longer be replicated, even by the authors themselves. We therefore aim to retest the article in a fully replicable manner. We begin by accepting all of the article's hypotheses and regenerating its data according to the original procedures. We then test the data with an improved methodology involving matching, multiple imputation, and simulation. Our exact results differ somewhat from those in the original article. However, our conclusion remains the same; Internet access and internet news increase the probability of voting.

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] title and abstract for Sheila and Katy

by kbackes＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi all, We welcome your comments and feedback on our working title and abstract for our paper. Thanks, Sheila and Katy TITLE: Scrimping, saving, and skipping pills: A matched analysis of how drug coverage impacts cost-related nonadherence among elderly Americans. ABSTRACT: The goal of this study is to evaluate the relationship between drug coverage and cost-related nonadherence of medicines among elderly Americans. We used data from the 2000 wave of the Health and Retirement Survey to further examine results presented by Mojtabai and Olfson, 2003. We used propensity score matching and a multivariate logit model to study whether a lack of drug coverage is associated with cost-related nonadherence. Using unmatched cohorts, Mojtabai and Olfson, (2003) finds that an increasing levels of drug coverage is associated with increasing levels of cost-related nonadherence. Our findings indicate that matching attenuates point estimates but produces larger confidence intervals in this analysis. The attenuation indicates that selection bias may not be fully controlled in the original analysis. However, interpretation of the substantive results does not differ greatly between the original and matched analyses, due to the overlap in confidence intervals. In the unmatched cohort the sample average treatment effect estimate is an odds ratio of 2.91 (2.44, 3.47) and in the matched analysis it is 2.17 (1.72, 2.75). Respondents without drug coverage in the original cohort are about three times as likely to report cost-related nonadherence, whereas in matched analysis, these individuals were about twice as likely to experience cost-related nonadherence as their counterparts with drug coverage. Similar patterns hold for specific health conditions. This study provides evidence for the utility of propensity score matching in observational studies where selection into treatment or exposure is not random.

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Announcements (fwd)

by jgrimmer＠fas.harvard.edu

Hey Everyone, There has been some confusion about the abstracts. We would like your abstracts and titles to be sent out sooner, rather than later. *At the latest* we'd like for everyone to have circulated their abstracts by Monday of next week. It would be ideal if these abstracts could be circulated over the weekend, Cheers, Justin ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2007 17:31:28 -0400 (EDT) From: Justin Ryan Grimmer <jgrimmer at fas.harvard.edu> Reply-To: <gov2001-l at lists.fas.harvard.edu> To: <gov2001-l at lists.fas.harvard.edu> Subject: [gov2001-l] 2 Announcements Hey Everyone, I hope your projects are going well. With your papers due soon, it is time to start thinking about your abstract and paper titles. As Gary notes in "publication, publication" the abstract and title are two of the most critical components of your paper. Therefore, in order to improve your abstracts and title, we require that \emph{everyone} send their abstract and title over the list, so that it can be critiqued by your fellow classmates, Gary, Holger, and myself. For more guidance on what you should include in the abstract and title check out section 5, part (c) of "publication, publication". Also, now would be a good time to re-read "publication, publication" as we begin the final push in the class. Also, for next week's final class please read the following article: King, Gary. Christopher Murray, Joshua Salomon, and Ajay Tandon. 2004. "Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research" (98) 191-207. We look forward to reading your abstracts and titles! Cheers, Justin _______________________________________________ gov2001-l mailing list gov2001-l at lists.fas.harvard.edu http://lists.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] TESS SPECIAL CALL DEADLINE JULY 1st, 2007 (fwd)

by king＠harvard.edu

fyi in case anyone's interested. Gary ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 27 Apr 2007 00:01:10 -0400 From: Diana Mutz <mutz at sas.upenn.edu> To: King at harvard.edu Subject: TESS SPECIAL CALL DEADLINE JULY 1st, 2007 SPECIAL CALL DEADLINE: July 1st, 2007 ATTENTION ALL SOCIAL SCIENTISTS AND PUBLIC HEALTH RESEARCHERS: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ORIGINAL DATA COLLECTION VIA TESS! The National Science Foundation, in cooperation with the Department of Homeland Security, is funding opportunities for original data collection for research that has potential relevance to the concerns of DHS. Three broad substantive areas have been identified as relevant and likely avenues for research: 1. Risk communication and its effects on disaster preparedness 2. Government and individual attributions of responsibility and perceived responsiveness; and 3. Inter-group threat and cooperation Other areas of research with relevance to terrorism, disaster preparedness, or related public health and medical issues will also be considered. Data collection for these projects will be paid for and conducted with the assistance of Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS). As with other TESS applications, only a short, 5 page proposal is required. TESS offers researchers opportunities to test their experimental ideas on large, diverse, randomly selected subject populations, or on specific subsamples of the population (based on geographic location, demographics, or other criteria). For more information on this special call or on TESS opportunities more generally, and for examples of TESS studies completed in the past, please visit our home page at www.ExperimentCentral.org. PLEASE NOTE: For those with other areas of interest, TESS continues to fund data collection for survey-experimental work in all areas of the social sciences, and for graduate student and faculty investigators in all disciplines. These proposals are accepted on a rolling basis, and we will continue accepting new proposals as our funding allows.

16 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] 2 Announcements

by jgrimmer＠fas.harvard.edu

Hey Everyone, I hope your projects are going well. With your papers due soon, it is time to start thinking about your abstract and paper titles. As Gary notes in "publication, publication" the abstract and title are two of the most critical components of your paper. Therefore, in order to improve your abstracts and title, we require that \emph{everyone} send their abstract and title over the list, so that it can be critiqued by your fellow classmates, Gary, Holger, and myself. For more guidance on what you should include in the abstract and title check out section 5, part (c) of "publication, publication". Also, now would be a good time to re-read "publication, publication" as we begin the final push in the class. Also, for next week's final class please read the following article: King, Gary. Christopher Murray, Joshua Salomon, and Ajay Tandon. 2004. "Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research" (98) 191-207. We look forward to reading your abstracts and titles! Cheers, Justin

17 years

[gov2001-l] Question about cluster specification in survey library

by skreiss＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi All. I'm trying to adjust for survey design factors in my reanalysis of replication data but am unsure about the cluster specification in the 'survey' library. In particular, I am not sure where/how to incorporate the cluster variable (each stratum in my sample contains 1-2 clusters). For anyone familiar with this library - if my cluster variable is 'RAEHSAMP', is it sufficient to provide the id argument with this variable? For example: hrs.sbp <- svydesign(id=~RAEHSAMP, strata=hrs.bpmeds$RAESTRAT, weights=hrs.bpmeds$R5WTRESP, data=hrs.bpmeds) The example in the help window uses a specification of 'dnum+snum' which makes little sense to me. Any clarification would be great. Thanks! Sheila

17 years

[gov2001-l] Fwd: useR! 2007 online registration is now available (fwd)

by jgrimmer＠fas.harvard.edu

Hey Everyone, the conference below is a great opportunity to get feedback on your work-- hope the papers are going well Justin ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2007 21:23:45 -0400 From: Olivia Lau <olau at fas.harvard.edu> To: Justin Ryan Grimmer <jgrimmer at fas.harvard.edu> Subject: Fwd: useR! 2007 online registration is now available The UseR conference is being held in at Iowa State from August 8-10th this year. Day-long training courses will be offered on August 8th, and panels on the 9th and 10th. We have a bunch of interesting invited speakers lined up, and this is a great chance to get feedback on your work and interact with individuals from different disciplines. Both early registration and the deadline for paper submission have been extended to May 15th. Papers should be about 8 pages, including graphs and tables -- anything that uses R in an applied manner that can be generalized beyond the immediate substantive application would be appropriate (e.g., an edited version most Gov 2001 papers). The deadline for poster abstracts remains June 30th. While papers will be refereed, posters will not; if a paper is not accepted for oral presentation, it will be assigned to a poster session, and all poster proposals will be assigned to appropriate sessions. Also, NSF funding is available for graduate students and junior faculty who are unable to obtain conference funding from their home institutions. Please email a CV along with your paper or poster submission to submissions at user2007.org. Thanks, and hope to see you there! Olivia Lau ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Dianne Cook <dicook at iastate.edu> Date: Apr 20, 2007 12:33 PM Subject: useR! 2007 online registration is now available To: r-announce at stat.math.ethz.ch Cc: user2007 at iastate.edu R Users and Developers, Online registration for useR! 2007 is now available on the conference web site. The deadline for the early registration discount has been extended to May 15. We haven't had many contributed papers as yet, or requests for travel support from young researchers and graduate students. Please consider contributing a paper, and encouraging your students and young faculty to submit a paper and request travel support. The deadline for these has also been extended to May 15. Contributed papers will be refereed. Please also note that we have negotiated airline discounts with both Northwest and United airlines. They are excellent discounts, there is some reduction in even the cheapest fares. So do keep this in mind when you plane your travel. Details are on the web page. The deadline to submit an abstract for a poster is June 30. These abstracts will not be refereed. All poster submissions will be accepted. Information about the meeting can be found at http://www.user2007.org/ If you have suggestions for the meeting please email the program committee at user2007 at iastate.edu. Douglas Bates, Dianne Cook, Dave Henderson, Heike Hofmann, Olivia Lau, Michael Lawrence, Luke Tierney, Hadley Wickham --------------------------- Di Cook dicook at iastate.edu

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Gov2001 April 2007