12 May
2003
12 May
'03
11:58 a.m.
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Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism, Beau.
An Argument for Excluding Low-Income Countries from Cross-Country Gun
Control Studies
Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain
differences in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains
why some studies find a negative relationship between gun control and
violence. Miron's paper, however, does not report that he imputes zero
for missing drug seizure values and I illustrate the bias of this
approach. After employing multiple imputation, I find that his measures
of drug enforcement and gun control play virtually no role in explaining
homicide rates. Further, when controlling for these variables in the
full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with high per capita
GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with low per
capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the
relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should
not include low-income countries in their analyses.
Beau Kilmer
Pre-doctoral Candidate
John F. Kennedy School of Government
PhD Mailboxes
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
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<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
11.0pt'>Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism, =
Beau.</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:bold'> </span></font></b></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:bold'>An Argument for Excluding =
Low-Income Countries
from Cross-Country Gun Control Studies</span></font></b></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
11.0pt'> </span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-align:justify'><i><font
size=3D2
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-style:italic'> Miron
(2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain differences =
in
homicide rates and that omission of the former explains why some studies =
find a
negative relationship between gun control and violence. =
Miron’s paper,
however, does not report that he imputes zero for missing drug seizure =
values
and I illustrate the bias of this approach. After employing =
multiple imputation,
I find that his measures of drug enforcement and gun control play =
virtually no
role in explaining homicide rates. Further, when controlling for =
these
variables in the full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with =
high per
capita GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with =
low per
capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the =
relationship
between guns and homicide in high-income countries should not include
low-income countries in their analyses.</span></font></i></p>
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font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>Beau Kilmer</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>Pre-doctoral Candidate</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>John</span></font> F. Kennedy School of
Government</p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>PhD Mailboxes</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>79 JFK Street</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
12.0pt'>Cambridge</span></font>, MA 02138</p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New
Roman"><span =
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11.0pt'> </span></font></p>
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12 May
12 May
12:38 p.m.
The abstract is very good, and this paper has a potential. But, I think
the punch line (last sentence and title) is weak. I would use as the main
conclusion your finding that drug enforment and gun control play no role
in predicting homicide rates. Also, perhaps you can say that multiple
imputation is better than imputing zeros. Rather than saying that
low-income countries should not be included, you can explain how they
differ and pooling them together overlooks those important differences.
Kosuke
On Mon, 12 May 2003, Beau Kilmer wrote:
Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism,
Beau.
An Argument for Excluding Low-Income Countries from Cross-Country Gun
Control Studies
Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain
differences in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains
why some studies find a negative relationship between gun control and
violence. Miron's paper, however, does not report that he imputes zero
for missing drug seizure values and I illustrate the bias of this
approach. After employing multiple imputation, I find that his measures
of drug enforcement and gun control play virtually no role in explaining
homicide rates. Further, when controlling for these variables in the
full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with high per capita
GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with low per
capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the
relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should
not include low-income countries in their analyses.
Beau Kilmer
Pre-doctoral Candidate
John F. Kennedy School of Government
PhD Mailboxes
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
12:47 p.m.
forgot to give some minor comments...
kosuke
> Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug
enforcement explain
> differences in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains
> why some studies find a negative relationship between gun control and
> violence.
This sentence can be improved. You need to say it more directly.
> Miron's paper, however, does not report that
he imputes zero for
missing drug seizure values and I illustrate the bias of this
> approach.
change "imputes zero for missing drug seizure values" to "assumes
countries with missing drug seizure values have no drug seizure" or
something like it...
After
employing multiple imputation, I find that his measures
of drug enforcement and gun control play virtually no role in explaining
homicide rates. Further, when controlling for these variables in the
full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with high per capita
GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with low per
capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the
relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should
not include low-income countries in their analyses.
Beau Kilmer
Pre-doctoral Candidate
John F. Kennedy School of Government
PhD Mailboxes
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
6:28 p.m.
the abstract looks good, but the title doesn't seem to reflect the point
in the abstract, which i thought was about the fact that drug enforcement
and gun control don't explain homicide.
Gary
On Mon, 12 May 2003, Beau Kilmer wrote:
Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism,
Beau.
An Argument for Excluding Low-Income Countries from Cross-Country Gun
Control Studies
Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain
differences in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains
why some studies find a negative relationship between gun control and
violence. Miron's paper, however, does not report that he imputes zero
for missing drug seizure values and I illustrate the bias of this
approach. After employing multiple imputation, I find that his measures
of drug enforcement and gun control play virtually no role in explaining
homicide rates. Further, when controlling for these variables in the
full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with high per capita
GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with low per
capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the
relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should
not include low-income countries in their analyses.
Beau Kilmer
Pre-doctoral Candidate
John F. Kennedy School of Government
PhD Mailboxes
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
7678
days inactive
7678
days old
gov2001@lists.gking.harvard.edu
3 comments
3 participants
participants (3)
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Beau_Kilmer＠ksgphd.harvard.edu -
Gary King -
kimai＠fas.harvard.edu