you have all the raw materials here, but I would invert how you present
this. the goal is to explain how the substantive conclusions in the
literature will be changed, not (except incidentally) what this guy got
wrong. the fact that he got something wrong has absolutely no standing
unless you can show that it makes a substantive difference. so I take it
that you have found much larger effects than he found of IO's. ok, so say
that. then put in the improvements over Pevehouse as the way you found
and justify your change in the conclusions of the literature.
Gary
On Sun, 11 May 2003, Yongwook Ryu wrote:
All,
We appreciate your comments. Chester, you should comment on it as well.
Title: The Democratizing Effect of International Organizations
Abstract: In this paper we review Pevehouse¡¯s 2002 article on the impact of
international organizations (IO) on a country¡¯s probability of democratic
transition. We argue that his analysis suffers from three weaknesses. First,
the IO Score variable invites the endogeneity problem and captures only the
effect of the most democratic IO rather than all IOs, of which a country is a
member. Secondly, the use of logistic model underestimates the probability of
democratic transition, as it is a rare event. And lastly, the dataset
systematically leaves out extreme autocratic regimes, thereby further
underestimating the probability of democratic transition. We improve on his
analysis by adopting the number of IOs as our explanatory variable, using
relogit model and by imputing missing data. We find that the probability of
transition is significantly higher than the original estimate, and that as a
country joins one more IO, the probability of democratic transition increases
1.436 times on average.
cheers,
yongwook
-----------------------------
Yongwook Ryu
PhD Student
Department of Government
Harvard University
Tel:617-493-3397
Email: yryu(a)fas.harvard.edu
-----------------------------
_______________________________________________
gov2001-l mailing list
gov2001-l(a)fas.harvard.edu
http://www.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l