[gov2001-l] Abstract for Yuki and Doru - Gov2001

dgavril＠fas.harvard.edu

1 May 1 May

6:18 a.m.

Gary, Dan and Clayton: Thank you for the very useful comments! Did we address them in the new version? Yuki and Doru Softened Wedges: How Economic Opportunity Tempers Voter Response to Polarizing Issues /Political parties add polarizing issues to the public agenda in order to establish favorable majorities. However, several Republican sponsored racially charged propositions on California ballots, aiming at polarizing the preferences of Whites versus Latinos, led the latter to join the Democratic camp while affecting little change on the former group's allegiances. Unlike previous research suggested, we find that not only did Whites not punish the Republican use of this tactic, but in fact tepidly rewarded it. Employing a multidimensional model of partisan identification, we seek to show that it was economic opportunities and not these propositions that shaped the preferences of White voters, thus accounting for California's White shift towards the Democrats. Therefore, in calculating the wisdom and effects of employing polarizing issues, parties should account for the economic priorities of their target groups. / On 5/1/2006 8:39 AM, Gary King wrote:

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dan makes good piints. In addition, do u have a measure for unstabe electorates and wedge issues? Both sound like they would be novel amd also hard to do. If not I would reword. Gary

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ghumphr＠fas.harvard.edu

2:06 p.m.

New subject: [gov2001-l] Slightly revised abstract for Yuki and Doru

I do not understand what you mean by "polarizing issues." Quoting Doru Gavril <dgavril(a)fas.harvard.edu>du>:

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Softened Wedges: How Economic Opportunity Tempers Voter Response to Polarizing Issues / Political parties add polarizing issues to the public agenda in order to establish favorable majorities. In the case of several racially charged propositions added by Republicans to California ballots, the sponsors' expectations of polarizing the White majority against the Latino minority led the latter to join the Democratic camp while affecting little change on the former group's allegiances. Previous research suggested that both groups had shifted towards the Democrats, Latinos as the propositions' target, and Democrats due to a backlash against the Republican use of this racially charged tactic. We find that not only did Whites not punish the Republican use of this strategy, but in fact rewarded it, though tepidly. Employing a multidimensional model of partisan identification, we seek to show that it was economic opportunities and not the propositions that shaped the preferences of White voters, thus accounting for this group's shift towards the Democrats. Therefore, while voters may modestly reward the use of wedge issues, our results indicate that the party that wins its supporters' economic allegiance may fare better. ///

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yohai＠fas.harvard.edu

9:08 p.m.

New subject: [gov2001-l] Preliminary Abstract: Andrew, Juan, Martin

This sounds like an interesting paper. I think the last two sentences are somewhat contradictory with the first - if the prior studies differ, which results are you confirming? You might also want to offer a sentence about what your key substantive result is - i.e. what is(are) the key variable(s) and what is your estimate of the magnitude of the effects? Best, Ian On Tue, 2 May 2006 kanz(a)fas.harvard.edu wrote:

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The Duration of Civil Wars: Reassessing the Evidence Recent studies of the determinants of conflict duration have produced widely divergent results. We argue that this divergence can be traced to (i.) different assumptions about time dependence inherent in conventional statistical models of duration (ii.) the general lack of comparability across datasets employed in the study of conflict length. In this paper, we seek to reconcile previous findings by addressing both of these issues. On the methodological side, we implement a generalized gamma model, which encompasses most traditional duration models as special cases, without making strong assumptions about the time dependence of conflict. We also extend the dataset of Collier et al. (2004) to include key variables proposed by other leading studies of conflict duration. Our results are generally compatible with earlier findings. However, using simulation, we find the magnitude of the effects to be quite different. _______________________________________________ gov2001-l mailing list gov2001-l(a)lists.fas.harvard.edu http://lists.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l

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dhopkins＠fas.harvard.edu

2:38 a.m.

New subject: [gov2001-l] Abstract: Catalinac and Chapman

Nice job, we'll look forward to reading this paper, and the description of the method applied seems quite clear. In terms of recommendations... The title poses a question but doesn't provide an answer--if possible, tell us *how* diversity influences economic performance, whether for good or ill. This impacts the first sentence as well: what kind of link has past literature found, a positive one or a negative one? Second, I am not sure of the scope of this past generalization at first--you might want to mention that we are talking about US States somewhere before the final few words of the abstract. Instead of "three measures of our dependent variable," you might say "three measures of growth" or "economic performance." Finally, it seems like your core contribution is to disaggregate the effects of levels of diversity and changes in diversity, but you might try to state that a little more clearly. Best, Dan

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The Dual-Effects of Diversity: How an Increase in Diversity Influences Economic Performance In contrast to previous scholarship that links ethnic diversity and economic performance, we make an analytical distinction between an increase in ethnic diversity within a constant institutional context, and the effect of a static level of diversity across varying institutional contexts. Conceptualizing an increase in ethnic diversity above a certain threshold as a treatment received by certain US counties from 1970 to 2000, we use a genetic matching procedure to isolate the total effect of an increase in diversity on economic performance, using three measures of our dependent variable. Our results provide resounding evidence that an increase in ethnic diversity hinders economic performance in the United States. _______________________________________________ gov2001-l mailing list gov2001-l(a)lists.fas.harvard.edu http://lists.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l

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schapman＠fas.harvard.edu

3 May 3 May

12:14 p.m.

New subject: [gov2001-l] Revised Abstract: Catalinac and Chapman

Title: Increasing Ethnic Diversity Hinders Economic Performance in US Counties In a recent paper, Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) present evidence that wealth and democratic political institutions may temper or even reverse a negative effect of ethnic diversity on economic performance. Yet, in an analysis of US counties from 1970 to 2000, the authors find that ethnic diversity has a negative effect on economic performance. To reconcile these conflicting findings, we demonstrate a tendency in current scholarship to make no distinction between a static, often historical level of diversity within a region and a changing level of diversity in a region over a brief period of time. We argue that the effect of an \textit{increase} in ethnic diversity have been underexplored because of our failure to conceptualize it as a unique phenomenon, yet it is precisely this question that is of substantive interest in wealthy democracies facing increasing levels of international migration. We use a genetic matching procedure to isolate the total effect of an \textit{increase} in diversity on economic performance in US Counties, using three measures of growth and income. Our results provide resounding evidence that, at least in the short run, an increase in ethnic diversity hinders economic performance of counties in the United States. On Tue, 2 May 2006, Gary King wrote:

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see below... On Tue, 2 May 2006, Dan Hopkins wrote:

Nice job, we'll look forward to reading this paper, and the description of the method applied seems quite clear. In terms of recommendations... The title poses a question but doesn't provide an answer--if possible, tell us *how* diversity influences economic performance, whether for good or ill. This impacts the first sentence as well: what kind of link has past literature found, a positive one or a negative one? Second, I am not sure of the scope of this past generalization at first--you might want to mention that we are talking about US States somewhere before the final few words of the abstract. Instead of "three measures of our dependent variable," you might say "three measures of growth" or "economic performance." Finally, it seems like your core contribution is to disaggregate the effects of levels of diversity and changes in diversity, but you might try to state that a little more clearly. Best, Dan > The Dual-Effects of Diversity: How an Increase in Diversity Influences > Economic Performance

titles should stand alone, and so if you mention dual effects those should be indicated in the title. its not clear from the title at present what you're talking about. also, see if you can avoid using the same word (diversity) twice.

> > In contrast to previous scholarship that links ethnic diversity and > economic performance, we make an analytical distinction between an > increase in ethnic diversity within a constant institutional context, > and the effect of a static level of diversity across varying > institutional contexts.

as written, this sounds mostly like a methodological distinction. do you mean that ethnic diversity has different effects in different places? or the same effect but it looks differently when compared to different things?

> Conceptualizing an increase in ethnic diversity above a certain > threshold as a treatment received by certain US counties from 1970 to > 2000,

sounds like a methodological trick. why do this? i'd worry that people will think its because you didn't get the result you wanted the other way? what you could do is explain substnatively rather than methodologically why a threshold (and which threshold) is important.

> we use a genetic matching procedure to isolate the total effect of an > increase in diversity on economic performance, using three measures of > our dependent variable. Our results provide resounding evidence that an > increase in ethnic diversity hinders economic performance in the United > States.

seems like the concluding sentence is what this whole paper is about. should it be in teh title?

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king＠harvard.edu

6:02 p.m.

New subject: [gov2001-l] Revised Abstract: Catalinac and Chapman

the only thing I'd add is that titles usually aren't sentences. this is pure style, but you want your style to match that of accepted articles. you could add 'how' at the start for example. Gary On Wed, 3 May 2006, Dan Hopkins wrote:

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Ah, good, the contribution is much clearer. I think you could cut down the middle bit somewhat, perhaps removing the sentence that begins with "we demonstrate a tendency..." and saying simply, "To reconcile these conflicting findings, we demonstrate that..." Also, you might want to frame your contribution not as "We argue" but "we demonstrate," since that's what ultimately matters in this context: what you can demonstrate empirically. That's what you want to emphasize for the abstract. Best, Dan On Wed, 3 May 2006, Suzanna Chapman wrote: