[gov2001-l] Sen/Landau abstract

Hi everyone, Here is our abstract. Thanks in advance for your comments. David Landau & Maya Sen Title: What do Justice Blackmun?s Oral Argument Grades Really Measure?: Revisiting Johnson et al.?s ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the U.S. Supreme Court.? Abstract: Johnson et al.?s recent article ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the Supreme Court? (2006), demonstrates a positive relationship between grades that Justice Blackmun privately gave to the oral arguments of arguing attorneys and the merits votes of all of the justices. Johnson et al. use this finding to claim that the quality of oral argument has a causal effect on Supreme Court merits votes, striking a blow against the dominant attitudinal model of Supreme Court decision-making. We find that the positive association between Blackmun?s oral argument grade and merits votes falls sharply as the ideological distance between Justice Blackmun and the voting justice increases. This may well mean that Justice Blackmun?s oral argument grade is merely measuring ideology, rather than acting as a true measure of oral argument quality. It is difficult to demonstrate a causal link between oral argument quality and merits votes using Justice Blackmun?s subjective oral argument grades as the dependent variable. _______________________________________________ gov2001-l mailing list gov2001-l at lists.fas.harvard.edu http://lists.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l