Hi everyone,
Here is our abstract. Thanks in advance for your comments.
David Landau & Maya Sen
Title: What do Justice Blackmun?s Oral Argument Grades Really Measure?:
Revisiting Johnson et al.?s ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the U.S. Supreme
Court.?
Abstract:
Johnson et al.?s recent article ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the Supreme
Court? (2006), demonstrates a positive relationship between grades that Justice
Blackmun privately gave to the oral arguments of arguing attorneys and the
merits votes of all of the justices. Johnson et al. use this finding to claim
that the quality of oral argument has a causal effect on Supreme Court merits
votes, striking a blow against the dominant attitudinal model of Supreme Court
decision-making. We find that the positive association between Blackmun?s oral
argument grade and merits votes falls sharply as the ideological distance
between Justice Blackmun and the voting justice increases. This may well mean
that Justice Blackmun?s oral argument grade is merely measuring ideology,
rather than acting as a true measure of oral argument quality. It is difficult
to demonstrate a causal link between oral argument quality and merits votes
using Justice Blackmun?s subjective oral argument grades as the dependent
variable.