looks like a nice result. (i take it that johnson didn't look at
ideological distance as you did.)
so now the question is how much you can claim. you have the abstract
written very tentatively, which is appropriate if that's what you have
learned. but if the results are strong, which seem to be implied by the
one sentence where you describe them here, then I would probably reword
the abstract to be stronger.
i.e. it could have the structure of: (1) Johnson et al introduce a clever
new measure of oral argument quality as judged by one of the justices
(Blackman) and show that it predicts judicial outcomes, contrary to that
implied by most political science literature on the courts, (2) although
that the measure introduced is an indicator of ideology, not (perhaps
only) of oral argument quality, as oral arguments were judged far more
harshly the more they differed from Blackman's view. (3) we conclude that
the polsci literature had it right from the start. etc...
it just depends whether your empirical analyses can withstand this more
forceful argument. if it can, then its definitely worth making..
Gary
On Mon, 30 Apr 2007, landau at
fas.harvard.edu wrote:
Hi everyone,
Here is our abstract. Thanks in advance for your comments.
David Landau & Maya Sen
Title: What do Justice Blackmun?s Oral Argument Grades Really Measure?:
Revisiting Johnson et al.?s ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the U.S. Supreme
Court.?
Abstract:
Johnson et al.?s recent article ?The Influence of Oral Argument on the Supreme
Court? (2006), demonstrates a positive relationship between grades that Justice
Blackmun privately gave to the oral arguments of arguing attorneys and the
merits votes of all of the justices. Johnson et al. use this finding to claim
that the quality of oral argument has a causal effect on Supreme Court merits
votes, striking a blow against the dominant attitudinal model of Supreme Court
decision-making. We find that the positive association between Blackmun?s oral
argument grade and merits votes falls sharply as the ideological distance
between Justice Blackmun and the voting justice increases. This may well mean
that Justice Blackmun?s oral argument grade is merely measuring ideology,
rather than acting as a true measure of oral argument quality. It is difficult
to demonstrate a causal link between oral argument quality and merits votes
using Justice Blackmun?s subjective oral argument grades as the dependent
variable.
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