Title: Moving the Unmovable? Campaign Advertising Exposure Doesn't Increase
Voter Turnout
Abstract: Studies of campaign effects on voter turnout usually focus on factors
that affect all eligible voters, but do not disaggregate voters based on their
pre-campaign voting intentions. Based on data from the 2000 US presidential
election, we find that eligible voters with a pre-campaign intention not to
vote (?non-voters?) are extremely difficult to mobilize. Non-voters,
regardless of reliable predictors of turnout such as union membership and age,
generally do not change their minds during a political campaign. This study
builds on the findings of Ashworth and Clinton (2007) by using more robust
methods and multiple model specifications. Not only do we confirm their
conclusion that campaign advertising has no effect on voter turnout, we also
find that particularly for non-voters, other factors such as level of political
interest and strength of party identification, also have no effect. This
finding points to a deeper source of political disengagement that cannot be
addressed by campaign tactics alone.
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