[gov2001-l] Connolly and Moon abstract

Title: Moving the Unmovable? Campaign Advertising Exposure Doesn't Increase Voter Turnout Abstract: Studies of campaign effects on voter turnout usually focus on factors that affect all eligible voters, but do not disaggregate voters based on their pre-campaign voting intentions. Based on data from the 2000 US presidential election, we find that eligible voters with a pre-campaign intention not to vote (?non-voters?) are extremely difficult to mobilize. Non-voters, regardless of reliable predictors of turnout such as union membership and age, generally do not change their minds during a political campaign. This study builds on the findings of Ashworth and Clinton (2007) by using more robust methods and multiple model specifications. Not only do we confirm their conclusion that campaign advertising has no effect on voter turnout, we also find that particularly for non-voters, other factors such as level of political interest and strength of party identification, also have no effect. This finding points to a deeper source of political disengagement that cannot be addressed by campaign tactics alone.