Gov2001 May 2003

gov2001@lists.gking.harvard.edu

32 participants
64 discussions

[gov2001-l] Yev/Phillip Abstract

by lipscy＠fas.harvard.edu

Comments/Critique appreciated. Thanks! Yev & Phillip. Utilizing data on Congressional voting and U.S. tariffs before and after the establishment of the Reciprocal Trade Authorization Act (RTAA) of 1934, we make two key claims relevant to the literature on endogenous tariff theory. First, we challenge the view that the RTAA made free trade more tenable by increasing political sensitivity to export interests (Bailey, Goldstein, and Weingast, 1997; Irwin and Krosner, 1999). The Democratic Party was sensitive to export interests before the enactment of the RTAA and became increasingly insensitive after 1934. This lends support to an alternative theory based on factor mobility and shifting interest group coalitions, which suggests that constituency shifts reversed the trade preferences of the Republican and Democratic parties in the post-World War II era (Hiscox 2002). Second, we argue that extant literature on the effect of divided government on tariffs fails to account for the structure of delegation and the aforementioned preference shift. Since the RTAA delegates authority only to lower tariffs, free-trade Congressional parties prefer to delegate regardless of the identity of the President. This theoretical prediction is borne out in our analysis of the voting data, which demonstrates that only members of the protectionist party have a systematic tendency to vote against delegation when the President is of the other party. On average, a member of the protectionist party is 31 to 60% more likely to vote against delegation in the presence of an opposing party President, while the equivalent for a liberal party member is -8 to 14%. We also revisit Lohmann and OHallorans (1994) seminal analysis and find that the effect of divided government on tariff rates is conditional on the presence of a protectionist Congress. ------------------------------------------------- Phillip Y. Lipscy Perkins Hall Room #129 35 Oxford Street Cambridge, MA 02138 (617)493-4893 DORM (617)851-8220 CELL lipscy(a)fas.harvard.edu http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~lipscy/ First Year Student, Ph.D. Program Harvard University, FAS, Department of Government -------------------------------------------------

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Amelia help!

by Rui_Wang＠ksgphd.harvard.edu

Dear all, I need a help for using amelia. I have a dataset of 22 observations, 10 variables. there's only 2 missing values in one variable. why amelia doesn't work? thanks Rui Wang ------------------------------ Ph.D. student in Public Policy Kennedy School of Government Harvard University

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] ice servers fas servers?

by olau＠who.fas.harvard.edu

Hi, Is there soemthing wrong with the servers or is it just me? I can't log on to any of the ice machines and I also can't log on to fas either! Please let me know if there's a way I can get around this problem. For that matter, I can't get to the course website either. Thanks, Olivia Lau.

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Moore/Ravishankar abstract

by rtmoore＠fas.harvard.edu

Comments and suggestions are much appreciated! Thanks, Ryan & Nirmala Differential Disadvantage: The Political Fortunes of Minorities in Direct Democracy In this paper, we examine the success of California's black, Latino, and Asian voters in ballot proposition elections. Hajnal, Gerber, and Louch (2002) argue that across all propositions blacks and Asians tend to be on the winning side as often as whites. After using multiple imputation to augment their dataset, we demonstrate below that all three minority groups fare worse than whites, and that each group has experienced a unique pattern of failure and success in California's initiative and referendum elections. We show persistent differences of 2 to 3 percentage points between whites' and minorities' probabilities of being on the winning side. Moreover, the success of different groups in direct democracy is highly conditional upon the margin of victory. -- ------------------------------------------ Ryan T. Moore ~ Government & Social Policy Ph.D. Candidate ~ Harvard University

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Postscript woes

by tburch＠fas.harvard.edu

This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C31809.8928A360 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I'm having trouble loading the graphics into the paper. I think = something is wrong with postscript, because the pictures were there = earlier and now, only one appears. When I latex my document and open = the .dvi file in xdvi viewer, every time i flip past a page with = graphics gibberish appears on the xterm/unix window. The gibberish says = stuff like "current allocation is local" and "GNU ghostscript = unrecoverable error," etc. Moreover, when I try to do postscript in R = now and type "dev.off()" i get back "null device" rather than the usual = response. If there are any unix or geniuses of any type out there who = can help, please offer advice. Traci ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C31809.8928A360 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'm having trouble loading the graphics = into the=20 paper.  I think something is wrong with postscript, because the = pictures=20 were there earlier and now, only one appears.  When I latex my = document and=20 open the .dvi file in xdvi viewer, every time i flip past a page with = graphics=20 gibberish appears on the xterm/unix window.  The gibberish says = stuff like=20 "current allocation is local" and "GNU ghostscript unrecoverable=20 error," etc.  Moreover, when I try to do postscript in R now = and type=20 "dev.off()" i get back "null device" rather than the usual = response.  If=20 there are any unix or geniuses of any type out there who can help, = please offer=20 advice.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Traci</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_009C_01C31809.8928A360--

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] re: Lee/Ryu Abstract

by yryu＠fas.harvard.edu

All, We appreciate your comments. Chester, you should comment on it as well. Title: The Democratizing Effect of International Organizations Abstract: In this paper we review Pevehouse¡¯s 2002 article on the impact of international organizations (IO) on a country¡¯s probability of democratic transition. We argue that his analysis suffers from three weaknesses. First, the IO Score variable invites the endogeneity problem and captures only the effect of the most democratic IO rather than all IOs, of which a country is a member. Secondly, the use of logistic model underestimates the probability of democratic transition, as it is a rare event. And lastly, the dataset systematically leaves out extreme autocratic regimes, thereby further underestimating the probability of democratic transition. We improve on his analysis by adopting the number of IOs as our explanatory variable, using relogit model and by imputing missing data. We find that the probability of transition is significantly higher than the original estimate, and that as a country joins one more IO, the probability of democratic transition increases 1.436 times on average. cheers, yongwook ----------------------------- Yongwook Ryu PhD Student Department of Government Harvard University Tel:617-493-3397 Email: yryu(a)fas.harvard.edu -----------------------------

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] Nelson/Fitzgerald abstract

by Jennifer_Fitzgerald＠brown.edu

Hi, all. Comments/criticisms/questions are welcome on our working abstract. Thanks a lot! Abstract: Research showing the positive effects of citizen initiated ballot propositions on electoral turnout suffers from omitted variable bias by ignoring the presence of items that land on ballots via state legislatures. Further, past work mistakenly implies that citizen initiatives are substantively different from other types of ballot proposals due to their origins among the people. In this paper we contribute to this literature by examining the effects of citizen initiatives and legislative referenda, which we argue are much more alike than has been previously acknowledged, on turnout in midterm and presidential elections. We find that the number of citizen initiatives and the number of legislative referenda are each positively correlated with turnout rates in midterm elections, but not in presidential elections. We also find that once the number of ballot propositions on midterm ballots reaches a certain threshold, the impact on turnout declines. This offers su! pport for the ballot fatigue hypothesis, which until now has not been supported empirically.

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] clarifying control variable selection

by olau＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi, guys. I know we went over this in Gov 1000, but I can't find my notes. Someone please correct me where I'm going wrong. Omitted variable bias occurs when one of the following conditions holds: 1) It's correlated with your quantity of interest. 2) It's causally prior to your quantity of interest. 3) It's correlated with the dependent variable. (?) I'm not sure on (3). Can someone please help? Thanks, Olivia.

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] our abstract

by Caroline_Nordlund＠BROWN.EDU

Hi, here is our abstract..please feel free to comment and make suggestions. Thanks, Carrie and Traci ????Title: Does Education Matter? Estimating the Effects of Education on Support for Minority Preferences??????? In his 2001 article, Glaser estimates the effects of education on support for minority preferences and finds that across four types of preferencesquotas in university admissions, hiring in municipal jobs, awarding of city contracts, and race-conscious redistricting--university quotas is the only issue in which more highly educated whites are less likely than their less educated counterparts to support the policy. After correcting for several types of bias, we use both Glasers data and 2000 National Election Survey (NES) to show that education also negatively affects support for preferential hiring of minorities when racial attitude variables are included in the model. We assert that by not including racial attitude questions in his original model, Glaser overlooks the important role race plays in determining citizens attitudes on this range of issues and thus produces biased estimates of the effects of education.

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] AMELIA and discussing missingness

by Beau_Kilmer＠ksgphd.harvard.edu

This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C317E0.7B8D8050 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" I'm using AMELIA and wonder how much of a discussion I should include about "missingness assumptions." Should I just refer to King et al. (2001), or should I include a few paragraphs giving the reader some background? For what it's worth, the audience for my paper is economists and criminologists. Thanks. ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C317E0.7B8D8050 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii" <html> <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; = charset=3Dus-ascii"> <meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10 (filtered)"> <style>  </style> </head> <body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple> <div class=3DSection1> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'>I’m using AMELIA and wonder how much of a = discussion I should include about “missingness assumptions.”  Should = I just refer to King et al. (2001), or should I include a few paragraphs giving = the reader some background?</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> For what it’s worth, the audience for my = paper is economists and criminologists.</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'>Thanks.</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 11.0pt'> </span></font></p> </div> </body> </html> ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C317E0.7B8D8050--

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Gov2001 May 2003