Gov2001 May 2003

gov2001@lists.gking.harvard.edu

32 participants
64 discussions

[gov2001-l] IMPORTANT: term paper

by kimai＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi everyone, I hope your paper is coming along. The deadline is tomorrow 4pm. As you enter the reception area of CBRSS, you will see on your right a mailbox labeled as "Gov2001." Please drop off one copy of the paper (one copy per each group) there. The paper format should follow *all* of the guidelines specified in http://gking.harvard.edu/papers/papers.html Please read this document carefully one more time before you turn in your paper. Good luck! Kosuke

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] Abstract

by olau＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi, all comments are welcome and appreciated. Thanks, Olivia and Asif. Title: Lighting the Powderkeg: Why Leaders Initiate International Crises Do international crises occur because aggressors look for easy gains? Gelpi and Grieco (2001) argue that potential challengers find democracies to be easy prey because democratic leaders are more likely to be inexperienced, and hence more likely to make concessions during international crises. We correct for time-dependency in Gelpi and Grieco's dependent variable and argue that they overestimate the intervening effect of leadership tenure on the probability of crisis. We argue that if the probability of crisis reflects the challenging leader's estimation that the defending leader will make concessions, then it should have a negative effect on the observed length of crises. We find that increasing the predicted probability of crisis initiation from 0 to 1 all else being equal increases the predicted length of the crisis from 93 days to 160 days. Rather than supporting the argument that challenging leaders make opportunistic judgments about the defending leaders willingness to concede, our results support the hypothesis that international crises occur because states actually have substantive areas of disagreement.

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] [hmdc.harvard.edu #3039] re: gov 2001 (from Anna Nelson) (fwd)

by Gary King

---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Tue, 13 May 2003 09:49:35 -0400 From: Matthew Cox via RT <king_support(a)backup.hmdc.harvard.edu> To: king(a)harvard.edu Subject: [hmdc.harvard.edu #3039] re: gov 2001 (from Anna Nelson) Including the text of ticket 3042: To: fascs-l(a)fas.harvard.edu From: Noah Selsby <nselsby(a)fas.harvard.edu> Subject: Sporadic Downtime Today Date: Mon, 12 May 2003 22:44:58 -0400 FAS UNIX system services were unavailable or sporadically available between 11:15 AM and 6:30 PM today (05/12/2003). Affected services included: - Home Directory Access - Mail Delivery - POP/IMAP/Webmail mail access - Web Services These interruptions resulted from a series of software and hardware failures. We are continuing to investigate the causes of these failures and apologize for any inconvenience these interruptions caused. Thank you for your patience, Noah Selsby -- Matthew P. Cox Systems Administrator Harvard-MIT Data Center

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] [cbrss_affiliates] Fwd: Sporadic Downtime Today (fwd)

by kimai＠fas.harvard.edu

Be aware of some possible interruptions althogh I'm not sure if ice servers will be affected. Kosuke ---------- Forwarded message ---------- >FAS UNIX system services were unavailable or sporadically available >between 11:15 AM and 6:30 PM today (05/12/2003). Affected services included: > >- Home Directory Access >- Mail Delivery >- POP/IMAP/Webmail mail access >- Web Services > >These interruptions resulted from a series of software and hardware >failures. We are continuing to investigate the causes of these failures >and apologize for any inconvenience these interruptions caused. > >Thank you for your patience, >Noah Selsby > >_______________________________________________ >fascs-l mailing list >fascs-l(a)fas.harvard.edu >http://www.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/fascs-l

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] Re: table footnotes..?

by olau＠fas.harvard.edu

This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C318F3.D4959C00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable MessageIf you want real table notes, you have to use the astronomy = package. I'm not sure how you call it exactly, but it's something like = \documentclass[...]{article} where [...] is the astronomy package. =20 If you want to fake it, you insert the symbol you want (^\symbol) where = you want it, and then after \end{tabular} \end{center} \\ \footnotesize then you indicate your symbol and type your notes=20 \normalsize=20 \end{table} Other people fake it by doing a big \multicolumn{number of = columns}{l}{footnote text}. =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Stanislav Markus=20 To: 'Olivia Lau'=20 Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 1:56 AM Subject: table footnotes..? do you remember by any chance how to do table footnotes in latex..? **************************** Stanislav Markus Ph.D. Candidate Harvard University Department of Government e: smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu t: 617.513.5407=20 ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C318F3.D4959C00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Message</TITLE> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1170" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>If you want real table notes, you have to use the = astronomy=20 package.  I'm not sure how you call it exactly, but it's something = like=20 \documentclass[...]{article} where [...] is the astronomy package.  = </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>If you want to fake it, you insert the symbol you = want=20 (^\symbol) where you want it, and then after \end{tabular}=20 \end{center}</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>\\</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>\footnotesize</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>then you indicate your symbol and type your notes=20 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>\normalsize </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>\end{table}</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Other people fake it by doing a big = \multicolumn{number of=20 columns}{l}{footnote text}.  </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dsmarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu=20 href=3D"mailto:smarkus@fas.harvard.edu">Stanislav Markus</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dolau(a)fas.harvard.edu=20 href=3D"mailto:olau@fas.harvard.edu">'Olivia Lau'</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 13, 2003 = 1:56 AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> table = footnotes..?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=3D996355505-13052003><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>do = you remember by=20 any chance how to do table footnotes in latex..?</FONT></SPAN></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <P align=3Dleft><FONT = size=3D2>****************************<BR><BR>Stanislav=20 Markus<BR>Ph.D. Candidate<BR><BR>Harvard University<BR>Department of=20 Government<BR><BR>e: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:smarkus@fas.harvard.edu">smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu</A><BR>t:= =20  617.513.5407</FONT> </P> <DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_0020_01C318F3.D4959C00--

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] ROC "models"

by rtmoore＠fas.harvard.edu

I think I understand what ROC curves indicate for binary choice models: whether, for many values of C, one model always, sometimes, or never predicts 0/1's correctly. Now, can ROC curves compare an imputed dataset to a non-imputed one? The idea would be this: for the same model, more information allows you to better predict the 0/1's than less information. Does this make sense? Is it trivial? Thanks, Ryan -- ------------------------------------------ Ryan T. Moore ~ Government & Social Policy Ph.D. Candidate ~ Harvard University

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] text wrapping in latex tables

by olau＠fas.harvard.edu

If you're using \caption{} in latex, put a \\ where you want to wrap. It may be because the graphic you're placing is itself wider than your text width. Remember that R graphics by default have a half-inch margin of white-space all around. You can reduce this with par(mai = ...) in the plot command. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Stanislav Markus" <smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu> To: "'Olivia Lau'" <olau(a)fas.harvard.edu> Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 1:53 AM Subject: RE: [gov2001-l] text wrapping in latex tables > LATEX, not R ;) > > **************************** > > Stanislav Markus > Ph.D. Candidate > > Harvard University > Department of Government > > e: smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu > t: 617.513.5407 > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Olivia Lau [mailto:olau@fas.harvard.edu] > Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 1:53 AM > To: Stanislav Markus > Subject: Re: [gov2001-l] text wrapping in latex tables > > > If you're producing the title using plot(... main = " title ") > then you just put a \n where you want the break in your title. > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Stanislav Markus" <smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu> > To: <gov2001-l(a)fas.harvard.edu> > Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 12:54 AM > Subject: [gov2001-l] text wrapping in latex tables > > > > for some reason my text (e.g. long title) in tables is not > automatically > > wrapped but extends beyond the margins.. how do i fix it? > > > > thanks! > > > > **************************** > > > > Stanislav Markus > > Ph.D. Candidate > > > > Harvard University > > Department of Government > > > > e: smarkus(a)fas.harvard.edu > > t: 617.513.5407 > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: gov2001-l-admin(a)fas.harvard.edu > > [mailto:gov2001-l-admin@fas.harvard.edu] On Behalf Of Ryan > Thomas Moore > > Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 12:49 AM > > To: gov2001-l(a)fas.harvard.edu > > Cc: Gary King; Kosuke Imai > > Subject: [gov2001-l] ROC "models" > > > > > > > > I think I understand what ROC curves indicate for binary > choice models: > > > > whether, for many values of C, one model always, sometimes, or > never > > predicts 0/1's correctly. > > > > Now, can ROC curves compare an imputed dataset to a > non-imputed one? > > The > > idea would be this: for the same model, more information > allows you to > > better predict the 0/1's than less information. Does this > make sense? > > Is > > it trivial? > > > > Thanks, > > Ryan > > > > > > -- > > ------------------------------------------ > > Ryan T. Moore ~ Government & Social Policy > > Ph.D. Candidate ~ Harvard University > > > > _______________________________________________ > > gov2001-l mailing list > > gov2001-l(a)fas.harvard.edu > > http://www.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l > > > > _______________________________________________ > > gov2001-l mailing list > > gov2001-l(a)fas.harvard.edu > > http://www.fas.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/gov2001-l > > >

20 years, 11 months

[gov2001-l] Kilmer abstract

by Beau_Kilmer＠ksgphd.harvard.edu

This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C3187D.D1DBFDE0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism, Beau. An Argument for Excluding Low-Income Countries from Cross-Country Gun Control Studies Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain differences in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains why some studies find a negative relationship between gun control and violence. Miron's paper, however, does not report that he imputes zero for missing drug seizure values and I illustrate the bias of this approach. After employing multiple imputation, I find that his measures of drug enforcement and gun control play virtually no role in explaining homicide rates. Further, when controlling for these variables in the full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with high per capita GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with low per capita GNP. I conclude that those wanting to understand the relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should not include low-income countries in their analyses. Beau Kilmer Pre-doctoral Candidate John F. Kennedy School of Government PhD Mailboxes 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C3187D.D1DBFDE0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" <html> <head> <META HTTP-EQUIV=3D"Content-Type" CONTENT=3D"text/html; = charset=3Dus-ascii"> <meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft Word 10 (filtered)"> <style>  </style> </head> <body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple> <div class=3DSection1> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 11.0pt'>Thanking you in advance for comments and criticism, = Beau.</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:bold'> </span></font></b></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><b><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-weight:bold'>An Argument for Excluding = Low-Income Countries from Cross-Country Gun Control Studies</span></font></b></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 11.0pt'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'text-align:justify'><i><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-style:italic'> Miron (2001a) argues that differences in drug enforcement explain differences = in homicide rates and that omission of the former explains why some studies = find a negative relationship between gun control and violence.  = Miron’s paper, however, does not report that he imputes zero for missing drug seizure = values and I illustrate the bias of this approach.  After employing = multiple imputation, I find that his measures of drug enforcement and gun control play = virtually no role in explaining homicide rates.  Further, when controlling for = these variables in the full datasets, simulations reveal that countries with = high per capita GNP have tremendously lower homicide rates than countries with = low per capita GNP.  I conclude that those wanting to understand the = relationship between guns and homicide in high-income countries should not include low-income countries in their analyses.</span></font></i></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span = style=3D'font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Arial'> </span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>Beau Kilmer</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>Pre-doctoral Candidate</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>John</span></font> F. Kennedy School of Government</p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>PhD Mailboxes</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>79 JFK Street</span></font></p> <p class=3DMsoAutoSig><font size=3D3 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 12.0pt'>Cambridge</span></font>, MA  02138</p> <p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3D"Times New Roman"><span = style=3D'font-size: 11.0pt'> </span></font></p> </div> </body> </html> ------=_NextPart_000_0001_01C3187D.D1DBFDE0--

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] confidence intervals

by alnelson＠fas.harvard.edu

Hi all, We have consistent patterns in our data that show ballot fatigue. However, due to our very small data set sizes (115 to 138 pooled time-series cross-sectional observations in each data subset) and the need to calculate panel corrected standard errors, we are having difficulty finding results that are statistically significant with 95% confidence. Is it legitimate to report results with, say, 80% confidence? For instance, when we drop to 80% confidence, we find that low (but non-zero) number of initiatives on the ballot increases turnout an average of 6.4% over elections where there are a fairly high number of initiatives on the ballot. This seems like decent evidence of "ballot fatigue," and the point estimate of a 6.4% difference in turnout seems quite politically significant. So, is this sort of result -- with 80% confidence -- legitimate to report? Thanks, Anna

20 years, 12 months

[gov2001-l] identifying the problem

by olau＠fas.harvard.edu

I have a problem. I have a dependent variable Y, and two independent variables X1 and X2, such that X1 -> Y X1 -> X2 X2 -> Y Is this multicollinearlity? I'm at a loss for words, someone please help! Thanks, Olivia.

20 years, 12 months

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